While TikTok Is Stuck In A Tariff Limbo, Substack Shines
China hit the brakes on a possible deal to sell TikTok after Trump's Liberation Day and global tariffs. Meanwhile Substack is thriving, but some users complain.
🙏 First of all, thank you
of and Lindsey Gamble for featuring and last week on your newsletters!Check out Lia’s ICYMI: The TikTok Ban “Threat Is Not Threatening” and Lindsey’s The Digital Twins Are Coming for more :)
💬 Here are our quick CONVERSATION STARTERS this week:
Who can save TikTok from the tariff meltdown?
Just last Friday, US President Donald Trump announced he was saving TikTok.
He said an unspecified deal with China and ByteDance for the purchase of TikTok’s US operations was near but more time was needed to iron out all details. He then announced he would extend by 75 days the deadline for TikTok’s owner to find a non-Chinese buyer or else been banned in the US.
But then, because of Trump’s sweeping tariffs announced on “Liberation Day” — on China and other countries — China hit the brakes.
“We had a deal pretty much for TikTok — not a deal but pretty close — and then China changed the deal because of the tariffs. If I gave a little cut in tariffs, they’d approve that deal in 15 minutes, which shows you the power of tariffs,” Trump told reporters last night in a quick gaggle aboard Air Force One.
Now, TikTok is in a limbo caused by Trump’s trade war.
“The market has spoken. The trade and tariff war started by the US against the world is unprovoked and unjustified,” the Chinese government said in a statement, signaling China will not backtrack from a retaliatory response to tariffs. That could possibly include banning the sale of TikTok to a US buyer — or a consortium of US buyers.
In fact, stock markets plunged on Thursday and Friday last week, even exacerbated when China’s Finance Ministry announced it would impose a 34% tariff on all goods imported from the U.S. starting on April 10.
“My Administration has been working very hard on a Deal to SAVE TIKTOK, and we have made tremendous progress,” Trump stated before reports of a standstill in the deal with China and Bytedance. “The Deal requires more work to ensure all necessary approvals are signed, which is why I am signing an Executive Order to keep TikTok up and running for an additional 75 days.”
Yesterday, a spokesperson for ByteDance said the company “has been in discussion with the US Government regarding a potential solution for TikTok US. An agreement has not been executed. There are key matters to be resolved. Any agreement will be subject to approval under Chinese law.”
So, who is negotiating with whom?
Interesting to notice in both statements China’s involvement in the negotiations. Didn’t TikTok tell us — including in multiple Congressional hearings — that the platform had nothing to do with the Chinese government?
In his initial statement, Trump said: “We hope to continue working in Good Faith with China, who I understand are not very happy about our Reciprocal Tariffs. […] We do not want TikTok to ‘go dark’. We look forward to working with TikTok and China to close the Deal.”
And who’s buying TikTok?
at the Information suggested public statements by the President “seems(?) to confirm that the Oracle + existing investor syndicate is gonna win the deal as expected.”Well, it’s a crowded space:
Oracle and other American investors, including US venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz are part of a bid led by Oracle’s founder Larry Ellison to carve TikTok US operations out of ByteDance.
Amazon, which has long harbored ambitions for an in-house social media network, has thrown its hats into the ring with a last-minute bid to buy TikTok.
A consortium led by OnlyFans founder Tim Stokely has partnered with a cryptocurrency foundation to submit a late-stage plan to bid for TikTok.
Private equity firm Blackstone is discussing joining ByteDance’s non-Chinese shareholders, led by Susquehanna International Group and General Atlantic, in contributing fresh capital to bid for TikTok's U.S. business.
Mobile technology company AppLovin has made a bid for TikTok, reportedly with backing from casino mogul Steve Wynn.
Will Substack continue to gain from all the uncertainty around TikTok?
“Substack is rolling out a TikTok-like video feed in its app,” titled TechCrunch just last week. And the article stated: “Given the timing of the launch, Substack is likely aiming to capitalize on the potential void left by TikTok if it faces a ban in the United States.”
Now, since before the first TikTok ban was about to happen on January 19, one day before Trump’s inauguration — the platform went dark for less than 24 hours — Substack has been trying to capitalize on the uncertainty surrounding TikTok’s future.
Since then, TikTok creators like
led the way — very successfully — into bringing new creators and new audiences to Substack. But Substack’s goal, according to co-founders and , was never to replace TikTok, but rather to create a new space for creators, that creators themsleves can own.This is why we love Substack!
Hamish recently commented “Yes, that’s it.” to this comment from
:“People still mistakenly refer to Substack as a "newsletter" tool, but it's really a full-fledged publishing platform with a social network grafted on top of it. Not only has it been adopted by nearly every kind of writer, but it's also podcasters, comic book artists, video creators, and even TikTok influencers. It's perhaps the first internet platform that offers both audience ownership and the growth benefits of a centralized social media network.”
Hamish also said that Substack “is not about being yet another place for video —it’s giving power to writers and creators. Own your relationship with your audience. Make more money. Choose community, not just connection.” It was a comment to
and saying:“Substack is making a play for creators looking to move beyond algorithm-driven platforms like YouTube and TikTok—and betting that direct-to-fan revenue is the future.”
Substack CEO and co-founder Chris commented “🤔” to a Notes post by
who was pointing out the following:“Now that Substack can replace TikTok, Instagram, X, podcast platforms, and YouTube, the only thing it’s missing is Tinder.”
Chris also restacked a post by
, saying:“um hi to the 15 THOUSAND new angels who I assume have joined me over the past week following the tiktok ban. love u! sit tight for some good cute shit!!!”
And Chris responded, “Dangerous-in-a-good-way,” to this post by
:Both Chris and Hamish congratulated Aaron for winning Subastack’s TikTok Liberation Prize. Chris said:
“We launched this prize to support the smart TikTokers ahead of the ban and inspire them to bring their followers to Substack. It was a fun experiment, and we loved seeing creative, weird, amazing videos everyone shared. Congratulations again to Aaron, and thanks to everyone who participated.”
The debate seems to continue on Substack.
Answering Hamish,
commented:“To be honest, the new Substack video format seems very TikToky to me. For what it’s worth, the old video format and video tab in the app was easier to use … and less “scrolly” feeling. Much calmer feeling, imo.”
Just yesterday, Chris was pointing out:
When in January, right before the first ban was impending, Hamish stated on Notes — that “It doesn’t matter if TikTok lives or dies. Creators deserve to own their audiences. And audiences deserve the chance to directly support the culture they believe in. The new era starts now.” — many commented on his post or restacked it.
- : “Ownership over algos. I’d say TikTok be ok though.”
- : “TikTok is just a symptom of the larger shift we see — a pivot from algorithm-driven platforms to creator-owned ecosystems. In this new era, creators aren’t just performers; they’re curators of culture, and their audiences aren’t just passive consumers but active patrons.”
- : “Nonsense. The original Internet was already like that, but people didn't want to learn any technical skills so they used social media platforms instead. Especially since no one would see it if they owned the content themselves.”
- : “Creative people will always adapt.”
- : “It seems like Substack is more than a way to own one’s audience. Your business model, while pioneering, can and will be copied. What makes it unique is the caliber of creators you’ve attracted. It’s really quite remarkable.”
- : “From court jesters and patrons to social media and newsletters, creators have come a long way. And the evolution continues.”
We also asked our Substack community about Substack v TikTok — 🙏 thank you!
- : “They simply don’t compare. TikTok is primarily short video, Substack is primarily Long Reads. Apples and Oranges.”
- : “Well, I have refused to use TikTok, so of course, from what I’ve seen of TT that shows up on Substack occasionally, I choose Substack. No contest. TikTok is like the Enquirer of online forums. Substack has intelligent, well thought out posts from people who know how to write and express themselves.”
- : “Substack and Tik Tok? Why compare? Tik Tok is entertainment; Substack is reading.”
- : “Both platforms attract different types of people. Both platforms provide different types of content. You really cannot compare them with each other.”
- : “I am new to Substack. I really like the independent journalism! TikTok was what I was into. Still get on it but prefer Substack for news.”
Is Substack maturing, or becoming like other platforms?
wrote last week in the New York Times that “The future of news is casual. Sometimes very casual” … and here on Substack!TV hosts like
, , “exiled or extricated from their networks, are now on Substack, trading sleek studios and ‘pancake makeup’ for their living rooms.”Commenting on Subastack’s decision in January to give “all users the ability to publish live video,” Jessica added: “Anchors can lose their seats and still hold on to their star power, so long as they give modern audiences what they want.”
Adding live video and short form video to Substack seems to have spurred a new, more mature growth for Substack. But not without critics.
Co-founder Hamish recently stated: “Have heard a few grumblings from people who are skeptical about the new short form video feed. Just wanted to share how I feel about it (I like it because it helps me discover great writers and creators).
He also commented on Substack v the other platforms, saying:
“Who else remembers Twitter in 2011? Or Instagram in 2013? Or even Facebook in 2009? Do you remember how loved those products were? It was a different universe. What changed wasn’t their formats. What changed was how effective they got at farming attention. We’ve been living in an attention slot machine ever since those platforms figured out how to make us all pawns in a game that could only be won by advertisers and the platforms themselves.”
His comments created critical reactions among Substack users, but also praises and suggestions:
- : “Substack will arrive once it stops talking about other platforms.”
- : “Social media has transformed the Internet into a polluted cesspool where Musk, Zuckerberg et al tweak algorithms to maximize their profits and publish right wing and Russian propaganda supporting Trump.”
- : “Who else remembers Substack in 2020? Or even in 2021? Or even in 2023? Do you remember how loved that product was? It was a different universe. What changed wasn’t their just formats. What changed was how effective they got at attention farming. And changing formats was just one domino in that line of ‘growth’.”
- : “Then don’t you be following suit. Maybe the best innovation is to keep this focused on writers and their readers.”
- : “Don’t put Reels on Substack please.”
- : “I think people loved initial versions of those products. The constant requirement (greed) for growth (eventually at any cost) saw them all iterate on their product to the point of changing how the product felt to people, even if founders argued that the core/heart was still there. The overall user experience still changed too much for many, who fell out of love with being there. In summary, if putting people first is a true goal, there’s a lot to be said for “do one thing really well” and sticking to that. No need to iterate as much as that unless growth is required.”
- : “So why are you turning into them? Why are you actively adding features to compete with social media?”
- : “As consumers we were naive and didn’t understand how this would all end up with us being the product. We know better today — so here's to more companies making products that don’t involve us as users giving up our rights, and better informed consumers understanding the trade-off. Substack is a great place to start.”
- : “And yet, here we are, with Substack farming attention in really rather similar ways.”
- : “Algorithms are messy on all these platforms. We’re forced to read what we don’t want to read and to see what we don’t want to see.”
- : “Since Substack decided to take out the AI tag in Notes, my revenue growth has plummeted. It feels like I'm tethered to yet another platform, without considerable control over the business outcome. I might start to get nostalgic for Notes of early 2024. I keep getting invites to live video events that aren't relevant to my reading habits.”
- : “The business model is the issue.”
- : “With all due respect, Hamish, I do believe that ranking writers contradicts Substack’s vision of carving an alternative path. I love how much better Notes is getting at showing me writing I want to find, but the leaderboard numbers interrupt that organic process.”
- : “Substack is its own fab platform. I can understand comparing to other social media for business reasons but know that this place attracts a different community and we can pick and choose our favs.”
- : “Yep exactly. It’s the attention economy.”
- : “Bang on! Somehow email still wins at building true communities I think.”
And so many more comments… I invite everybody to read that conversation!
I wouldn't be surprised if new social media platforms spring up copying Substack’s model. Most creators are sick of algorithms.
I have to add what is the point of having tiktok? I used to watch for news content but now am fed ad after ad, christian AI and my follows for certain creators dissapeared.
The app is useless now in my opinion, but those are just my two cents.